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Season previews: Why EMU football won’t be the worst in 2010

May 3, 2010

It’s been generally acknowledged that EMU was the second-worst Football Bowl Subdivision (formerly Division I-A) team in 2009, ahead of Western Kentucky, who not only matched Eastern’s 0-12 record but managed to consistently get blown out badly. Given that the Eagles have been consistently bad for many years (the last winning season was 1995), it’s no surprise that many people expect them to finish at the bottom of the heap again in 2010. But when I come across a truly ridiculous argument that doesn’t even manage to be internally consistent, I feel obliged to call it out, and such is the case with a blog posting this morning from the Orlando Sentinal (“College Football 2010 Rankings: No. 120 Eastern Michigan“).

First we get this gem: “Why are they last? This would actually be an improvement for Eastern Michigan, which went winless in 2009 under first-year coach Ron English.” Well, although a 1-11 season would be an improvement over last year’s 0-12 mark, if you’re looking at it from a ranking perspective, which seems to be what the Sentinal is doing, 120th is not an improvement over 119th. Or to put it another way, going from second-worst to worst is the wrong direction.

Next up, “The schedule is tough — with non-conference games against Army and Ohio State and conference games against two of the best teams in the MAC — Ohio and Northern Illinois.” If I were marking the sure-loss games on EMU’s schedule, I’d start with Ohio State and Central Michigan. Ohio State is…well, they’re Ohio State. It would be almost unimaginable for EMU to win at the Horseshoe. In fact, if not for Appalachian State, I wouldn’t have included “almost” in that statement, and I still debated it. As for Central Michigan, sure they lost their coach and their quarterback, but let’s be reasonable. Central Michigan went 12-2 last year, going 8-0 in regular season conference play, won the MAC Championship game against MAC East champion Ohio, and eked out a two-overtime win against Troy in the GMAC Bowl. Included in that 8-0 stretch was a 56-8 pounding of Eastern Michigan. Central Michigan has won the MAC championship three of the last four years, and already changed coaches once in that period. Another coaching change won’t kill them. As for Army being tough, they managed a whopping 5-7 record last year, and in their meeting last year Eastern had Army’s lead down to 6 points in the fourth quarter.

Finally there’s this howler: “The defense should continue to be a bright spot for the Eagles while the offense should make improvements under Gillett.” OK, I know that EMU statistically had one of the best pass defenses in FBS, second only to Air Force, but their 3,321 rushing yards allowed was worst in the country. No one bothered trying to pass against them, because no one needed to. Let’s be honest, both the defense and the offense were terrible last year.

With a quarterback who’s had time to learn the system and a second-year head coach who now has some of his own recruits, I think it’s probably reasonable to expect three or four wins from Eastern Michigan football this year. Finishing 3-9 or 4-8 probably gets EMU into the middle of the pack in the MAC; it wouldn’t be a great finish, but it’s a far cry from the prediction of 120th.

7 Comments leave one →
  1. Michael permalink
    May 5, 2010 5:40 pm

    Pretty fair assessment of Eagles football….I think English has to recruit a little better,getting local kids who were 2nd teamers on thier high school squads may put a few seats in the stands but won’t translate to wins.
    I think EMU pulled the rug on Genyk a little early and that didn’t help English either.

    And when in blue blazes is Michigan going to give EMU a home game??

  2. May 6, 2010 9:13 am

    Genyk was 16-42 at EMU. He went 4-7, 4-7, 1-11, 4-8, 3-9. Part of me would have liked to have seen Genyk as coach for Schmitt’s senior season, but when you look at what he did in five years at Eastern, it would have been pretty hard to justify keeping him for a sixth year. On the one hand, they probably would have won a few games last year (let’s say Army with the big home crowd, Ball State, and the big upset at Northwestern). On the other hand, do you really keep a coach around for another 3-9 season? And then what, if you look at his record at EMU and tack on another 3-9 at the end? In firing Ron Zook in the middle of the 2004 season, Florida AD Jeremy Foley supposedly said “What must be done eventually should be done immediately”, and I think that statement applies in this case too.

    As for Michigan coming to Ypsi for a game, that is scheduled for the year two-thousand-never. Michigan doesn’t travel if they don’t have to. They travel for four Big (11) Ten games a year, and to Notre Dame every other year, and every once in a while they throw in a home and home series against a major-conference team. Then they try to pad the rest of the schedule with MAC and FCS teams (this fall they’re hosting the UMass Minutemen, who went 5-6 in the FCS last year). It’s their tradition; all those Fielding Yost national championship teams played just one or two true road games a year, in seasons that went up to 12 games. Besides, if Eastern could pull $5,000,000+ just on ticket sales for a single game, they’d do the same thing.

  3. Jason permalink
    June 27, 2010 11:07 am

    Why in the world would Michigan ever play at Eastern? EMU wouldn’t want that either. They make a lot more money playing there than hosting a home game ( even a sell out only gets a third as many people as A2) I think MSU’s plan is noble , but ultimately it would be more beneficial ( to MSU, and to EMU,WMU,and CMU) to host those games in East Lansing.

  4. June 27, 2010 12:35 pm

    Jason, I absolutely agree, and that’s the point I was trying to make in the comment above yours. Michigan grosses about $4.5 million in ticket sales per home game. Eastern’s TOTAL home attendance for the 2009 season was 25,080; even if every one of those tickets was the most expensive ticket ($9), EMU would have grossed a whopping $0.23 million for the season. For an entire season of football, EMU’s ticket sales were less than 5% of what Michigan made in a single game.

Trackbacks

  1. Why EMU football won’t be the worst in 2010, Part 2 « Eastern Michigan Eagles
  2. Game 1 preview: Army Black Knights « Eastern Michigan Eagles
  3. MAC Blogger Roundtable, Week 1 « Eastern Michigan Eagles

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